Bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion – SocGen

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The Dollar is struggling to pursue its advance. Economists at analyze FX market outlook.

Stronger growth in China enough to guide EUR/USD above 1.0635?

Whether the USD will hold its ground may depend on whether pricing for December FOMC surpasses 50%.

We are closely watching technicals in the DXY as bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion and potentially breaking down.

Stronger growth in China is implicitly positive for EUR/USD (trade balance) but is it enough to guide the pair above 1.0635? We have our doubts and ideally would need to see a significant retracement in UST/Bunds, better Eurozone data (weaker US) and narrowing of the XCCY basis. The 10y spread is closing in on 200 bps, not a signal to add Euro longs.

For the 10y UST yield, a shot at 5% depends on whether 4.88% can be overcome.