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انتشار: شهریور 27، 1402
بروزرسانی: 30 اردیبهشت 1404

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A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.



منبع: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-steadies-at-opening-of-fed-rate-decision-week-202309180808

A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged up, reaching 105.41. This is just a sigh away from the 2023 high\xa0 near 105.88. Should the DXY be able to close above there for the week, expect the US Dollar to go even stronger in the medium-turn.

On the downside, the 104.44 level seen on August 25 kept the Index supported on Monday, not allowing the DXY to sell off any further. Should the uptick that started on September 12 reverse and 104.44 gives way, a substantial downturn could take place to 103.04, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) comes into play for support.\xa0

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  • The US Dollar trades mixed at the opening on Monday.\xa0
  • Traders will likely keep powder dry for the main Fed event on Wednesday.
  • The US Dollar Index resides above 105.00, struggling to make new highs.\xa0

The Greenback had a bit of a rough ride, though the economic conditions compared to Europe and other countries still make it stand out and shine. This makes investors to still flock into the Greenback already for the high rates investors get paid out on the back of it. The question for this week will be if the US Dollar Index can stay above 105.00 even if the Fed delivers a rate pause.\xa0

نویسنده: تیم تحریریه آریان فارکس