Russian Ruble drops to 96.30 as US Dollar extends recovery, focus on NFP

USD/RUB clings to mild gains around 96.25 as it stays firmer for the second consecutive week heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Rubble (RUB) ignores recently firmer Russian statistics amid the US Dollar’s recovery ahead of the monthly US employment data for August.

That said, Russia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August rose the most in three months while posting a 52.7 figure versus 52.1 initial estimations. Earlier in the week, Russian Unemployment Rate also dropped to 3.0% for July from 3.1% prior and 3.2% market forecasts.

It’s worth noting that the Greenback cheered mostly upbeat inflation and activity data the previous day to recover after declining for three days to Wednesday. While checking the numbers, it can be known that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, matched market forecasts of 4.2% YoY and 0.2% MoM versus 4.1% and 0.2% respectively priors. Further, the Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 228K from 232K prior (revised) versus 235K market forecasts while the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 48.7 for August compared to 44.1 expected and 42.8 previous readings. Additionally, Personal Spending rose past the 0.6% expected and previous readings to 0.8% for July whereas Personal Income eased to 0.2% for the said month, from 0.3% market forecast and prior.

Elsewhere, China announced a slew of measures to defend the economy from losing the post-COVID rebound but the market’s doubt about the Dragon Nation’s ability to avoid such hardships prod the optimism ahead of the key US jobs data.


  • USD/RUB braces for second consecutive weekly gain ahead of US NFP.
  • Upbeat Russian employment, activity data fails to impress Ruble buyers.
  • Strong US job report is necessary to defend Fed’s “higher for longer” rate bias.

Moving on, USD/RUB traders should pay close attention to the US NFP, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Wages as the Fed hawks run out of steam, which in turn suggests the need for strong job numbers to defend the US Dollar’s latest rebound.

Technical analysis

USD/RUB remains on the bull’s radar unless it stays beyond a three-month-old ascending support line, close to 94.55 by the press time.


On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaches intraday high near 103.75 as it extended the previous day’s recovery from the 200-DMA amid the market’s preparations for the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Additionally favoring the US Dollar bulls could be the comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic as he advocated the “higher for longer rates” policy.