AUD/USD is still trading around 5% below its mid-July high. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Aussie’s outlook.
Downside potential again in 2025
With the US likely to enter a recession in the coming months, while the Australian economy is expected to have a soft landing, the trend is likely to reverse in the coming weeks. As a result, we see further recovery potential for the AUD in the medium term.
In 2025, inflation is likely to prove more stubborn than expected globally, as it has already in Australia. As the RBA is perceived as more hesitant and the Fed as more determined in its fight against inflation, we then see slight downside potential for AUD/USD again.