EUR/USD trades with mild positive bias above 1.0500 mark, lacks bullish conviction


  • EUR/USD gains some positive traction on Monday and is supported by subdued USD price action.
  • Bets for at least one more Fed rate hike in 2023 act as a tailwind for the USD and should cap the pair.
  • Expectations that the ECB is done hiking rates might also hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets.

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and reverses a part of Friday’s losses to a one-week low – levels just below the 1.0500 psychological mark. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak, though the lack of follow-through warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on its post-US CPI gains registered over the past two trading days and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Monday, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the EUR/USD pair. The downside for the USD, however, seems cushioned in the wake of expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. The bets were reaffirmed by the latest US consumer inflation figures released last Thursday, which remained above the Fed’s target and kept the door open for at least one more Fed rate hike in 2023.

The outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the buck. That said, the recent dovish remarks by several Fed officials suggested that the US central bank is poised to leave interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive month in November and nearing the end of its policy-tightening cycle. This, along with a positive tone around the US equity futures, further undermines the safe-haven Greenback. However, speculations that further rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) may be off the table for now cap gains for the EUR/USD pair.

In fact, the ECB signalled in September that the hike, its 10th in a 14-month-long fight against inflation, was likely to be its last. Adding to this, ECB policymakers expressed cautious optimism last week that inflation was on its way back to 2% even without more rate hikes. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting, said over the weekend that growth could be slower if the effects of monetary policy turn out to be more forceful than expected, or if the world economy weakens further and geopolitical risks intensify, warranting caution for the EUR/USD bulls.

Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving macro data due from the Eurozone on Monday, while the US economic docket features the only release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Traders will further take cues from Fedspeaks, which, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

Technical levels to watch