EUR/USD inches up amid quiet Labor Day, as Lagarde’s failed to deliver

Investors slashed their bets of higher interest rates in the United States (US), which is also bad news for the USD. The odds for September’s meeting stay at around 93%, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool, while the chances for November diminished further. Additionally, the first-rate reduction is projected for May 1, with traders anticipating rate cut odds around 5.14%, 19 basis points lower than the current effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR) of 5.33%.

A quiet session at the beginning of the week saw the Euro (EUR) gaining 0.19% versus the US Dollar (USD), as the US cash markets were closed on a Labor Day holiday. European Central Bank (ECB) officials failed to boost significantly the EUR, as the EUR/USD pair trades at 1.0792, almost flat as Tuesday’s Asian session begins.

EUR/USD Sees Limited Movement as ECB President Stays Mum on Monetary Policy; U.S. Jobs Data and Chinese Stimulus in Focus

Other data, depicted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), reported that US business activity, as indicated by the manufacturing PMI, scored 47.6, exceeding analysts’ estimates of 47.0 and the previous reading of 46.4.

What to watch?


  • EUR/USD pair gains a modest 0.19% to trade at 1.0792, as US markets remain closed for Labor Day and ECB President Lagarde’s comments fail to stir volatility.
  • Mixed US employment data and a higher manufacturing PMI of 47.6 led to reduced expectations for US interest rate hikes, keeping September odds at 93%.
  • For further directional cues, investors see upcoming economic indicators, including the Eurozone’s S&P Global Services, Composite PMIs, and US Factory Orders.



During the European session, ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said that decisive action in high inflationary scenarios was “crucial.” Even though she spoke about inflation in a seminar in London, she failed to trigger volatility in the EUR/USD, as Lagarde was muted in talking about the ECB’s current monetary policy.

Last week’s US employment data was mixed as the economy added 187K jobs, above estimates and July’s data. Nonetheless, an uptick in the Unemployment Rate, from 3.5% to 3.8% YoY, kept most currency pairs within familiar levels, though spurred a reaction on the US bond market.

In the meantime, the additional stimulus the Chinese Government provides on its property markets boosts the economy and improves investors’ mood.

The Eurozone (EU) economic docket will feature S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs and the Produce Price Index (PIP) by Eurostat. On the US front, the agenda will review Factory Orders.

EUR/USD Technical Levels