Bounces off one-week low, remains below 83.00 mark

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• USD/INR states a modest recovery from a one-week low touched this Thursday.
• The technical setup favours bulls and supports prospects for a further move up.
• A convincing break below the 100/200-day SMAs will negate the positive bias.

The USD/INR pair attracts some dip-buying near the 82.80 area, or a one-week low touched during the Asian session this Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak. Spot prices, however, remain below the 83.00 round-figure mark, the near-term bias seems tilted in favour of bullish traders.

The positive outlook is reinforced by the fact that the USD/INR pair is holding comfortably above technically significant 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Moreover, positive oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing some traction – suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

A sustained strength beyond the 83.00 mark will reaffirm the constructive setup and lift the pair back towards last week’s swing high, around the 83.20-83.25 region. This is followed by the 83.45 region, or the record high touched in August, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for additional gains.

On the flip side, weakness below the 82.80-82.75 region might continue to attract some dip-buying and remain limited near the 82.40-82.30 confluence, comprising the 100-day and the 200-day SMAs. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken will make the USD/INR pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the 82.00 round figure.

Some follow-through selling below the July monthly swing low, around the 81.70-81.65 region, will suggest that spot prices have formed a near-term top and pave the way for a deeper corrective decline. The USD/INR pair might then weaken further towards the 81.35 intermediate support before eventually dropping towards testing sub-81.00 levels.

USD/INR daily chart

Technical levels to watch